美国第70任财政部长罗伯特·鲁宾（Robert Rubin）是克林顿眼中“自汉密尔顿以来最伟大的财长”。克林顿执政期间，美国财政由赤字走向盈余，鲁宾功不可没。此外，他还在任上启动了强势美元政策，联同德国和日本实施了大规模的干预以支持美元，成功巩固了美元的国际地位。25年后的今天，鲁宾是否能为这届美国政府高达3.13万亿美元的财政赤字开出良方？他如何看待近期美元走势？美国大选他“押注”特朗普还是拜登？对中美关系又将作何建言？10月24日，在由中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）联合各组委会成员机构召开的第二届外滩金融峰会上，鲁宾就上述问题对话CF40学术委员会主席、北大数字金融研究中心主任黄益平，集中传达了以下观点：第一，疫情风险仍将持续一段时间，而即使顺利完成疫苗接种，疫情对经济的影响可能也要持续一年以上才会逐渐消退。第二，美国的财政状况十分棘手。但如果把更多的钱花在支持增长的长期投资上，美国将更容易摆脱高额债务问题。第四，如果拜登赢得大选，美国的许多政策都将发生重大转向。第五，在承认分歧的同时，中美两国也必须认识到，两国之间的建设性关系符合各自利益。
黄益平：我的第一个问题是关于疫情的。我们现在在这里开会，但大家都戴着口罩。我知道美国和欧洲的情况更加严重。你对所谓的第二波疫情有什么看法？我们是否能实现有效的疫苗接种，并且疫情就会从此改善，还是说会有第二波疫情？
Rubin：我的观点是，我与不少医疗专业人士讨论过，包括美国医疗系统的领导者，有机会向他们了解相关的专业知识。我认为我们未来的路很艰难，益平。如今，欧洲和美国的患者数量显然还在增加。我不知道什么时候会有疫苗。我们必须先开发出疫苗，然后必须广泛的分发和接种疫苗。这可能要等到明年中期到中后期。即使如此，根据我与一位美国政府前高级卫生官员的交流，她认为，即使疫苗到位，可能也只有60%-70%的有效率。所以，在疫情方面，我觉得我们还有很长的路要走。此外，即使在我们最终完成疫苗接种工作之后，还要等上一年以上，疫情对经济的影响才会逐渐消减。因为疫情带来的许多经济影响，在规模和程度上都非常显著，我认为，在接种疫苗之后，这些影响还将持续很长时间。所以，我在相当长的时间里，我们都会继续生活在这些困难之中，，需要保持谨慎。
黄益平：看起来不确定因素会伴随着我们，而在未来一段时间我们必须要保持格外的小心。谢谢，但我想与此相关的一个问题是，政府将如何应对这样的情况，尤其是疫情带来的财政负担？主持人刚才提到，您在财政部任职期间最大的成就之一就是平衡预算。您曾经说过，因为伊拉克战争等等，小布什总统很快又扩大了赤字，在全球金融危机之后，经过这次疫情之后，美国政府以及世界各国的政府，债务负担都有上升。我们要如何应对？真的能像有些人建议的那样，美国要通过多印美元来摆脱这种局面吗？
Rubin：你说的对，我们面临着一个非常复杂的局面。我来重点讲讲美国。虽然欧洲显然也面临着类似的问题，不过，我认为在某些方面，欧洲应对不足，他们对这场大流行病的反应并不充分。我们需要有非常迅速和非常大规模的财政刺激措施，美国正是这样做的。我认为这种做法很正确。我们现在需要再来一轮刺激措施。
我希望下一个刺激法案能在选举前通过。但现在看来，这种可能性极小。而且事实上，如果拜登先生当选的话，可能要等到他上任之后才能完成。我觉得他的方案，如果你看过他的方案的话，我觉得他说的基本是对的。他说，我们需要尽快地再来一轮非常大的刺激措施。我同意这一点。他还说，我们需要从事长期的公共投资。不幸的是，我们在过去相当长的时间里，没有充分地进行投资。他还说，财政应该为投资提供资金。你知道，刺激经济的资金不应该来自赤字，但我们需要用财政资金来支付投资，这部分资金应该来自累进式税收。
同时，我觉得我们还有一个问题，那就是：我们的长期财政政策应该是怎样的？换句话说，是的，我们现在确实应该采取大规模的刺激措施，同时我们应该用累进税来支付公共投资，但是，我们的长期财政政策应该是什么？
今天在美国有大量的争论，我和一些人，其中某些人你也很熟悉，我和他们有非常不同的看法。有的人说，既然利率这么低，既然美元是世界储备货币，那么我们可以在未来很长一段时间内承受相对较高的赤字，以及相对较高的债务与GDP比例。还有一些人和我一样，认为我们需要刺激政策，我们需要用财政收入进行公共投资。但是，我们需要真正关注的是美国的债务走向，如何降低债务占GDP的比例，如何让债务状况在长期内降到我认为的更合理的水平。美国国内会有非常多的争议，争议将会持续很久。但是我目前认为，如果拜登能够当选总统的话，他的施政纲领中的经济主张，差不多就是美国需要的。
黄益平：所以，在利用财政支出稳定短期经济的同时，也要考虑长期增长，这里面有一个权衡的问题。所有国家都必须在两者之间取得平衡。你刚才提到了美元作为储备货币的好处和优势，为美国赢得了很多处理债务问题的时间。但是，现在我们看到的一件事情是，有美国以外的人在想，也许美国正在放弃所谓的强势美元政策，这个政策恰好是你在财政部任职时提出并实施的。你同意这种看法吗？你觉得这种做法会产生什么影响？
Rubin：不，我不这么认为。我认为美国的主流经济政策思想家们，在大多数情况下，相信强势美元在过去为我们带来了很多益处，今后也会是如此。话虽如此，但从短期来看，美元或任何其他货币都会波动，这取决于多种变量、多种因素。而在短期内，市场波动往往取决于心理上的因素。但我认为从长远来看，美元将反映美国经济的基本面。而且我认为从长远来看，美国能继续维持强大的经济体系， 我认为我们具备这样的基础。
我知道，在中国有一些人认为美国现在正在走下坡路，我不同意这种说法。我认为我们有非常大的优势。我们有法治，我们有根深蒂固的市场经济，有丰厚的自然资源，有完善的大学系统，有充满活力的社会和文化，还有很多其他的东西。我们有很多政策挑战需要应对，而这就要求我们的政治制度在未来更有效地发挥作用，并且我认为我们的制度有很大概率能做到这一点。在美国历史上，我们的政治制度也曾出现过类似的弊端，但我们的政治富有弹性。政治可以在美国迅速改变。
我刚才也说了，我们是一个充满活力的社会。所以我认为，我们未来经济很可能强劲复苏，而相应地，各方面的表现也会回归正常。我补充一下，我认为中国和美国都是强大的经济体，而且在未来很长一段时间内都会是世界上两个领先的经济体。我认为，这样的地位为这两个国家带来了巨大的益处。稍后我们会讨论这个问题，希望随着时间的推移，两国能够发展一种建设性的关系，并从中获益。
黄益平：所以我们不该对外汇市场的短期波动过多地解读。如果你是对的，那肯定会对人民币汇率产生重大影响。我的另一个问题是，关于未来两周内即将到来的大选可能的结果，你有何见解？我在新闻中经常会看到结论截然不同的报道，一组说拜登肯定会赢，另一组则说特朗普肯定会赢。你的看法是什么？
Rubin：我几乎可以肯定的是，这两件事都不会发生。选举结果是什么，到了11月12日才知道。选举日是11月3日，到目前为止，早期投票占2016年总投票的40%左右。似乎提前投票的人数有了巨大的增长，这可能表明我们在这次选举中的投票率会特别高，我认为这是一件非常好的事情。有一位非常受人尊敬的政治分析家叫查理·库克。他发布了库克报告，我认为这是最好的关于美国的政治报告。我两天前在纽约的“经济俱乐部”接受了他采访，他认为拜登当选的概率会相当高。但这并不意味着特朗普无法取胜，特朗普也可能会赢。一切只有等到选举结果揭晓才会清楚。
黄益平：我的最后一个问题是，如果拜登胜出，我们会见证美国政策的重大转向吗？此外，您是否愿意和我们分享一下您对中美关系未来前景的见解？我们是会看到一个不同的世界，还是会看到过去3到4年情况的延续？
Rubin：我绝对相信，如果拜登获胜，我们将在许多方面看到美国政策的巨大变化。我已经提到过，他将会采取规模庞大的刺激措施，假设他赢得了参议院，他就可以按照他认为合适的方式进行立法。如果他无法赢得参议院，那他就得想办法和参议院的共和党人合作。他仍然可以通过行政措施来完成。我认为他将进行数额非常可观的公共投资，资金来自于累进税。
气候变化将是拜登政府的一个非常重要的优先事项。他提出了一个应对气候变化的完整议程，这将与我们今天看到的情况来个180度大转弯。
我们国家的不平等现象日益严重。我认为有很多方法来应对，他将尝试解决减少这种情况，阻止不平等现象加剧，其中部分做法是，通过我说的累进税来资助公共投资。
我想，在国际上，他将与其他国家建立合作。我认识他30多年了，可能有35年了。他就是这样的人。他特别擅长替人着想，试图接触他人，并与他人合作。他会搁置分歧，与共和党人合作，实现他的政策。他还会在世界各地与我们的盟友合作，并与所有与我们互动的国家合作。我们在社会结构方面也有很多问题，我认为他会成为一位团结者，而不是分裂者。他将使人们团结起来。我再告诉你一件事。他担任公职以来，身边一直围绕着很棒、很有能力的人。你看看他的竞选团队就知道，他们都是非常强大的人。他们深思熟虑、聪明、平衡、务实。如果他当选，你会在他任命的人以及他作为美国总统的政策中，看到这一点。他当选我认为是大概率事件，但万事无绝对。
黄益平：非常感谢你。遗憾的是，由于时间关系，我们可能不得不到此结束。我想总结一下我们从鲁宾先生这里听到的五个关键信息。第一，看来疫情风险会伴随我们一段时间，所以我们必须要有耐心。第二，美国的财政状况是非常难处理的。但如果把更多的钱花在支持增长的长期投资上，美国将更容易摆脱高额债务问题。第三，按照鲁宾先生的说法，强势美元政策仍将继续，显然，这将对全球外汇市场产生重大影响。第四，如果拜登当选，整个世界都会不一样，我们都应该做好准备。
Rubin：我唯一想补充的是，中美关系存在着巨大的复杂性和不确定性，但我认为有一件事是绝对肯定的，一点也不复杂，即：美国和中国是否能够发展出建设性的关系，必然会对21世纪产生重大影响。其中包括气候变化、经济规范、有效处理核武器，以及其他许多问题。无论双方在今后决定发展友好关系还是走向对抗，但在这些问题上，双方都存在共同利益。而我诚挚地期望，我们两国的领导人，能够在承认双方就一些问题存在分歧的同时，认识到两国之间的建设性关系符合各自的利益。
黄益平：我认为你刚才的总结词非常好，两国之间应该建立合作关系。非常感谢你今天为大家分享观点，希望你明年能亲自参加我们的会议。谢谢！
黄益平：Bob, my first question is about the pandemic. We are here now having a conference but everybody is wearing their masks. I understand that the situation is more difficult in the US and in Europe. What is your take about the so-called second wave? Do we have an effective vaccination so that the things that could improve from here, or should we expect the second a replay of what happened earlier this year?
Rubin：Yiping, I ll give you my view. And my view was based on discussions I ve had with quite a number of people who are healthcare professionals, they are leaders in the American healthcare system, which I m obviously not, but I had the opportunity to draw on their expertise. I think we ve got tough road ahead, Yiping. We re clearly getting significant numbers up in both Europe, and the United States today. I don t know when there will be a vaccine.But in terms of why did you have to… first, you have to get a vaccine. And then you have to get it widely used and widely distributed. That s probably sometime in the middle to late middle of next year. And even then, I was with a former senior health official in the United States government the other day. She said that she thought that even once the vaccine is in place, it may be only 60%-70% effective. So I think we ve got a long way to go, Yiping, in terms of the pandemic, and moving past it.And furthermore, even after we get the vaccine effort finally in place, and after we finally passed the point, which maybe is well more than a year from now, past the point when the pandemic is significantly affecting our economies, a lot of the economic effects of the pandemic, I believe, because they ve been so substantial and significant in both magnitude and type, I think there are going to be lasting well beyond the adoption of a vaccine. So we re gonna be living with all these difficulties, I think we have to take extra care for quite a long time.黄益平：So looks like the uncertainty will be with us. And we have to take extra caution for some time. Thanks. But one of the questions I guess related to that is, how is the government going to cope with the situation like this, particularly with regard to the fiscal burdens? Now, Mr. Chairman just mentioned, one of your greatest achievement during your tenure at the Treasury was to balance the budget. Obviously, you once said, President Bush Jr. quickly widened the deficit again, because of the Iraq war and so on, after the global financial crisis and after this great pandemic, the US government, in fact, the governments around the world, all have a lot of more debt burdens. How are we going to cope with that, and can the US actually get out of this situation by printing more US dollar as some suggest?Rubin：I think we face a very complicated… I think you ve got it right, Yiping, I think we face a very complicated situation. Let me focus just on the United States. Europe obviously faces similar problems, though, I think in some ways they ve been less responsive to doing what needed to be done in regard to the pandemic. We needed to have very rapid and very large fiscal stimulus, at least in my opinion, and that s what we did. I think we did the right thing. We need now another major stimulus bill. I was hoping it will get done before the election.But it looks now that that s extremely unlikely. And in fact, it may not get done until after, if Mr. Biden is elected, until after Mr. Biden takes office. I think his program, if you look at his program, Yiping, I think he s got it about right. What he says is, we need to have another very large stimulus as quickly as possible. And I agree with that. You also said we need to invest, engage in public investment for the long term, which we have, unfortunately, underdone for quite some time. I agree with that. And he says that we need to pay for the investment. Not the stimulus should be deficit funded, as you know, but the investment we need to pay for with increased revenues. And that should be increased taxes on a very progressive basis. And I think that s right. So I think his plan, the plan that he s laid out in the campaign, at least conceptually, I don t agree with every single piece of it. But I think conceptually, it s right.At the same time. I think we do have another question, which is what should our long term fiscal policy be? In other words, yes, we should have a massive stimulus now. Yes, we should have public investment that fully paid for with the progressive taxes. And that is what he s proposing. But then, thirdly, what should our long term fiscal policy be? And there s a tremendous amount of debate about that in the United States today, including people who, Yiping, you know very well, we have very different views. There are those who say that we can, if interest rates are so low, and since we are the reserve currency for the world, that we can afford to have relatively high deficits for a long time to come, and a relatively high debt to GDP ratio.There are others like me, who say that we should do the stimulus, we should do the public investment fully paid for. But then we need to really focus on how do we get our debt trajectory? How do we get our debt to GDP ratio? How do we get our debt position over the long run down to what I consider a sounder deposition? And that will be a very big debate that will go on, I think, for quite some time, in the United States. But I think for now, I think Biden s program is, if he gets elected president, about where we should be.黄益平：Great. So there is a question of tradeoff between fiscal spending for the short term stability, but also long term growth. That s something we all have to balance, you just mentioned about the benefit, the advantage of the US dollar as the reserve currency, which buys the US a lot of time dealing with the debt problem. However, one of the things that now we re looking at and people outside of the US thinking, maybe the US is giving up the so called a strong dollar policy, which you helped to create when you were in the Treasury. Do you agree with that assessment? And what do you think it will be the implications?Rubin：No, I don t think so, Yiping. I spend a lot of my time… I have an actual job, I have a working job. But nevertheless, I spend a lot of my time in policy debates, policy dialogue. I think mainstream economic policy thinkers in the United States, for the most part, believe that a strong dollar has served us very well, and will continue to serve us very well. Having said that, in the shorter run, currencies, the dollar, or any other currency, will fluctuate, as you well know, dependent on all kinds of variables, all kinds of factors. And in the short run, markets tend to be psychological. But I think in the long run, Yiping, I think in the long run, the dollar will reflect the fundamentals of the economy, the United States economy.And I think in the long run, I think we re well positioned to have a strong economy. I know that there are some in China, at least I was told that some in China, who think that the United States is now in an economic decline. I don t agree with that. I think we have very great strengths. We have the rule of law, we have a deeply embedded market economy, vast natural resources, great university systems, dynamic society and culture, and much else. We have a lot of policy challenges that we need to meet. And that requires our political system to function more effectively going forward than it has in the recent past. But I think the probabilities of that are very high. At other periods in our history, we’ve had a similar kind of malaise, if you will, in our political system, and then we ve had political resilience. Politics can change rapidly in America.And I said a moment ago, we re a dynamic society. So I think the odds are very high that we will have a strong economy going forward. And if we have a strong economy going forward, I think, reflecting that, we will have a strong bell, I might add, Yiping, I think China and United States both are strong economies, and will be the two leading economies in the world for a long time to come. And I think that that puts a tremendous premium on the two countries. Look, maybe we ll discuss this later, I don t know, but looking to develop a constructive relationship over time to get the benefits that could come from that kind of relationship.黄益平：So we shouldn’t read that too much out of a short-term momentums of the FX market. And if you’re right, that certainly will have a significant implications on the exchange rate of RMB. The other thing, Bob, I like to do to press you for your insights is that the likely outcome of the election which is coming within the next two weeks.The interesting thing here is I read news reports and I often read reports with very different conclusions. And one set says, it’s for sure Biden is going to win. The other says Trump is definitely going to win. What is your take bob?Rubin：I think anything is almost certain that both of those things aren’t going to happen. Look, keeping that elections are what they are, we’ll find out on November 12th. The election is November 3rd but so far, the early voting by mail or in person represents about 40% of the total voting in 2016.So there seems to have been an enormous increase in early voting and that may suggest that we’re going to have an extraordinarily high level of turnout in this election which I think would be a very good thing.There’s a very highly respect political analyst named Charlie Cook. He puts out the Cook Report. It’s the best perspective, I think，political report in America. And I did an interview with him yesterday, The Economic Club, two days ago rather, The Economic Club of New York. And he said he thinks that the odds will be quite high that Biden will this. It doesn’t mean that Trump can’t win; He may win.And that we will only know once it’s all over. 黄益平：My final question Bob is, if Biden wins, will we see significant changes in American policy? And the particular, if you like to share with us your insights about the future outlook of the Sino-US relations.Are we going to see a different world or are we going to see just continuation of what we saw last 3 to 4, years?Rubin：I think, I am absolutely confident that if Biden wins, we’ll see a dramatic change in American policy for us. I’ve already mentioned that he will have immediate stimulus, a large immediate stimulus assuming for the moment that he gets the Senate and he can legislate as he sees fit.As he sees fit. If he doesn’t get the Senate, then he’s going to have to figure out how to work with Republicans in the Senate. He can still do it right by executive action.But my guess would be that if he doesn’t get the Senate, they will then put together a large stimulus. I think he will pursue having very substantial, as I said a moment ago, very substantial public investment funded by tax increases that are progressive bases. Climate change will be a very high priority for the Biden administration.And he’s laid out a whole agenda for dealing with climate change that will be 180 degrees different from where we are today.We have an increase in inequality in our country. And I think there are a number of ways that he will try to address reducing that, well reversing the increasing inequality and get a reduction in inequality, part of it through as I said funding public investment with progressive taxes.I think internationally, he will reach out to work with other countries. He’s built up…I’ve known him for over 30 years. Oh, gosh, 35 years at this point I guess. And he’s built that way. He relates to people and he tries to reach out and work with others. He’ll reach across the aisle to work with Republicans in order to effectuate his policies. And he’ll reach out around the world to work with our allies and to work with all the countries that we interact with. And I think people…I think he will…we also have a lot of issues with respect to our social fabric and I think he will be a uniter of people as opposed to be a divider. He will bring people together. I have a very good feeling about his presidency.I’ll tell you another thing, as long as he’s been in public office, as long as has been in public office, he had very good people around, very strong people. And if you look at the people in the campaign, right now, it’s a very…they are very strong people.They’re thoughtful. They are bright. They are balanced. They’re pragmatic and I think you’ll see that manifested in the people he appoints and in the policies that he has as president of the United States, if he gets elected, which I think is a high probability but certainly not a certainty.黄益平：Okay, well thank you very much.Unfortunately, given the time, we ll probably have to end here. But I just want to summarize the five key messages that we heard from Mr. Rubin. Number one, it looks like the pandemic risk will be with us for some time, so just be patient. Number two, and the fiscal situation in the US is very difficult to deal with. But hopefully, if they spend more money on long term investment supporting growth, it will be easier for the US to get out of that high debt problem. Number three, the strong US dollar is going to stay according to Bob, that will have a significant implications for the global FX market, obviously. And a number four, Biden is going to a win, if he wins, the whole world will be different and we should all be prepared for that.鲁宾：I think the only other comment I’d make is and I said this about a year ago when your foreign minister was, the State Council Foreign Minister, Mr. Wang Yi was in New York. There are enormous complexities and uncertainties around the relationship with the United States and China.But I think, one thing is certain and it’s not at all complex is that the 21st century will be enormously effective whether the United States and China can constructive relationship built around climate change, economic norms, dealing effectively with nuclear weaponry, and so much else which is in our mutual self-interest or whether we have an adversarial relationship. And I sincerely and powerfully hope is that leaders in both of our countries will recognize the mutual self-interest in having a constructive relationship.Well, acknowledging that there will be some issues on which we will disagree.黄益平：Well, I think that’s a very good summing up a message for the two countries to work together. Bob, thanks very much for sharing with us your insights and hopefully you can join us in person next year. Thank you.
第二届外滩金融峰会
为深入研判疫情对全球经济格局的影响，把脉新经济发展机遇，力争变局中开新局，2020年10月23-25日，中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）联合各组委会成员机构在上海召开第二届外滩金融峰会。
峰会坚持“非官方”、“国际化”、“专业化”定位，聚焦金融开放、金融科技、资产管理等议题， 通过高水平的思想碰撞与观点交锋，分享真知灼见，以对话推动共识，以共识推动合作，为建设开放型世界经济提供高质量的智力支持，助力上海国际金融中心建设再出发。
为保障可持续发展，外滩金融峰会设立组委会，组委会是峰会的最高决策机构。峰会组委会主席由十二届全国政协副主席、中国金融四十人论坛常务理事会主席陈元担任，执行主席由中国金融四十人论坛常务理事、上海新金融研究院理事长屠光绍担任。